Invasion By China Would Be A Fearful Experience, But They Would Choke On The Outback
I make no bones about this, if China were to invade Australia because we took an active role in the defence of Taiwan, it would be a hideous experience for Australia. It would make the German bombing of the UK look like Guy Fawkes' Night. Millions of Australians would suffer. Literally millions. Of this there is no doubt, and Australia's Defence Force is right to model this invasion, they are right to warn us of the consequences. I genuinely believe, though, not even China could support a modern invasion of Australia, anymore than Germany was ever able to actually invade Britain in the 1940s. China would choke on the outback, and the resistance Australia could mount from there. They would choke on their own agribusiness interests here.
Take this image. Now, imagine a panorama constructed of photographs taken side-by-side along the tropic of Capricorn from Western Australia to Queensland coasts, stitching together 100s of thousands of images (if not millions) like this one...
As Gangajang sang, this is Australia. 3786km of impenetrable scrub, desert and bushland. Tanks don't play well in this terrain, just ask Rommel about north africa. Sand ruins tanks Indigenous Australians moved with "the wet" and were a few hundred per mob for 80000 years, but an invasion force marches on its stomach, its fuel supplies, its ability to harvest local water. Overland invasion of this country is impossible, even with aerial forces. This land is also very suited to campaigns waged by small resistance and sabotage militia so, while invincible, it's also defensible.
So, coastal attack? Which coastal stretch? Somewhere down the eastern coast, where the most industry and wealth is? It's also where our defences are strongest. Australia's navy is a coastal navy, China's is a mostly oceanic, international navy. Nuclear subs are larger and longer range, but they're crap in shallow water and they're vulnerable on the surface. They're big, but still not big enough to land an invasion force large enough to take Sydney and Melbourne at once. They could nuke cities from them, but they can't invade with them. Their surface navy has that role to fill, and their airforce at strategic targets. Our submarines are purpose built for coastal defence and could operate as wolfpacks. Power doesn't win submarine battles, fit to the submarine "terrain" does, stealth does. Our submarines are a problem for surface navies as much as U-Boats were in WWII.
Then the Chinese land. They could bomb Canberra, but even in their horrendous numbers, they're conscripts in unknown territory, fighting volunteers on home soil, some of the best fighters in the world, on the gounds in which they train. Then there's the "racist element", "Straya Cookers," the bogan element, loose cannons every one, who also know the bush and would take seriously, and crazily, the defence of Australia. Think David with his sling. No discipline and a racist hatred for the invader works well for a resistance. It doesn't play out well for an invader. And Taiwanese refugees who might find their way here? They'll be more than will to roll out a deadly "welcome mat" for the invaders.
Yes, China could invade Australia. All they could succeed at is scorching the earth, leaving no place worth habitation. The Chinese know this. That's why, for all the diplomatic stone throwing between China and Australia, China buys agribusiness and mines here. They assimilate nations and peoples. And we will never see it happen in our lifetime. They're never going to invade. They'll just keep letting people move here. You know what, I welcome that. Those people would defend their new homes against their old homeland, too.
China is not the threat. Capitalism's relentless attack on the global environment is the threat to both Australia and China, and the sooner we all put our "tribal" behaviours to bed, the better. But rest assured, China cannot defeat Australia on home soil. They would choke on this wide brown land, the cost for them would be as great for us. Such a failure could well be regime ending.